Payrolls rise 157,000 in July

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Employers pulled back on hiring in July, but the job gains were still enough to lower the US unemployment rate a tick to 3.9 percent from 4 percent.

The gain in payrolls was concentrated at private employers, which added 170,000 jobs, while the public sector cut 13,000 positions. Many business leaders have warned that the standoffs with China, the European Union and other major trading partners could cause layoffs if tariffs stay in place for an extended period of time.

Still, digging deeper into the numbers there is evidence to suggest Trump's economic policies (a.k.a. #MAGANomics) are creating measurable improvements in the labor market - and the broader economy.

Restaurants, bars and hotels added 40,000 jobs, the most in nine months. Faucher writes that as that happens, job growth will slow down because businesses will find it more hard to recruit new hires. Hospitals added 7,000 jobs over the month.

Economists will be watching to see whether these industries rebound later in the year. But many potential workers are still on the sidelines, and Congress has an opening to help.

One thing that hasn't impressed much is wage growth.

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"The vast majority of the jobs we're adding are in services, which tend to be low-wage sectors", said Megan Greene, chief economist at Manulife Asset Management. Wages for construction production and non-supervisory workers are rising, far outpacing other industries, reflecting a short supply of labor relative to demand.

Workers with only a school degree also seem to be doing relatively better, with a 4.0 percent unemployment rate matching the prerecession low (it had been 3.9 percent in May), although still above the 3.2 percent low hit in 1999.

A former labor department official, Manning also pointed out that the nation's "underemployment" rate - which includes those who have become marginally detached from the workforce and those working part-time for economic reasons - has declined to 7.5 percent, its lowest level since 2001. This is the same record low that was recorded two months ago.

The last time the USA economy had such low unemployment in the late 1990s, wage growth was substantially higher. That kept the annual increase in wages at 2.7% in July. Since election, more than 1 million prime-age people joined or rejoined the labor force.

The data follow a factory survey earlier this week showing manufacturing growth cooled in July and executives were concerned about the impact of the trade war. Within social assistance, individual and family services added 16,000 jobs in July and 77,000 jobs over the year. The value of United States exports slid 0.7% to $213.8 billion; imports rose 0.6% to $260.2 billion, led by increases in medicine and crude oil.

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